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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the prize. However, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

Yet the current field is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and recent also-rans ascending in unison. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and fun season, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still